Monday May 7, 2006

NBA Home Court – So What?

Well the first round of the NBA Playoffs is complete, which means we are theoretically now down to the eight best teams in the league, although Dallas supporters would beg to differ.

We have always felt that once the teams get out of the Conference Quarterfinals, that the better teams usually cover the spread the rest of the way, and that home court advantage becomes diminished. The theory behind this is that the remaining teams are so talented that playing on the road usually does not faze them, and most of these clubs have good road records anyway.

Well, we ran the numbers, and we are happy to report that the playoff data over the last 10 years supports our belief. Home teams performed decently against the spread in the opening series, but they significantly lost their advantage the rest of the way. Here is what our research unveiled over this period:

NBA PLAYOFF HOME TEAMS (1997 to 2006)

First Round: 199-170-8, 53.9% ATS

Conference Semifinals: 107-111-3, 49.1% ATS

Conference Finals: 42-70-3, 37.5% ATS

NBA Finals: 24-30-2, 44.4% ATS

ALL Playoff Games: 372-381-16, 49.4% ATS

All Playoffs AFTER First Round: 173-211, 45.1% ATS

Please note that the home team performed progressively worse in each round of the Conference Playoffs, and it is the ROAD team that is 70-42-3, 62.5 percent ATS in the Conference Finals over the last 10 playoff season. The home team does improve a bit in the NBA Championship series as home court advantage becomes a tad more important because of unfamiliarity, but the road teams still hit at a 55.6 percent clip in the finals at 30-24-2 ATS.

Finally, as we right this, there have been three Conference Semifinal games so far in 2007, and true to form the road team went 2-1 ATS. The Spurs won outright as an underdog and the Nets covered in a narrow defeat in Cleveland. The only casualty was Chicago, which was embarrassed by the Detroit Pistons in their series opener. We do expect the Bulls to bounce back strong the rest of the series though. Also, the only road team that has not begun the second round yet is probably the hottest team in basketball, the Golden State Warriors, who begin their series in Utah on Monday.

The bottom line here is that you should not shy away from betting on a team the rest of the way simply because it is on the road. This is especially true in the middle games of a series where the road team is actually the higher seed.