 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
By Mike Rose
|
|
Wednesday, August 17, 2005
|
|
|
|
Top 10 Teams To Fade ATS In 2005
|
|
|
1) USC (13-0, 7-5 ATS) O:8 D:5
Ever since HC Pete Carroll arrived in LA, the Trojans have
been a formidable force. That will still hold true in 2005
as the program looks to pull off the 3-peat, but they will
get tagged with some very lofty numbers throughout their
upcoming campaign. They went 7-5 ATS in last year’s
championship season, and covered some very large chalk
spots along the way. The offense will still be among the
country’s elite, but they lose a boatload on defense,
which will in turn make many of their backers unhappy
with every passing week. Laying 35 with the Trojans a
year ago was simply money in the bank, but that will
not be the case in ’05.
2) SOUTH CAROLINA (6-5; 4-7 ATS) O:5 D:4
The Ol’ ball coach is back in the SEC but resides in an
entirely different state that boasts a squad with nowhere
near the talent he’d become used to coaching down in
Gainesville. Former HC Lou Holtz left this squad in
disarray as my last memory of the Gamecocks is of them
throwing fisticuffs with the Clemson Tigers in their
season finale. A game they not only lost 29-7, but also
in the last round by way of TKO. Steve Spurrier will
get this program turned around and in contention for
National Championships, but it won’t be this year as
the Cocks just don’t have the talent to run
his schemes.
3) AUBURN (13-0; 7-4-1 ATS) O:6 D:6
The Tigers had themselves a marvelous 2004 campaign that
saw them bounce back in a huge way from a very
underachieving and disappointing 2003. They went
unblemished in the loss column, and made their backers
very happy as they went 7-4-1 ATS or 8-4 ATS depending
on what line you received when they beat LSU by a single
point. That being said, the Tigers lose way too much in
crucial areas on offense (QB, 2 RBs), and lose a bunch up
front on the D-Line and in the secondary. Look for there
to be value early in fading the Tigers, but then pick and
choose your spots the rest of the way once this team gains
experience and starts to gel.
4) WISCONSIN (9-3; 6-4-1 ATS) O:6 D:4
HC Barry Alvarez has been one of the class act coaches in
his tenure at Wiscy, and is very witted as his choice to
step down after this season couldn’t have come at a better
time. The cupboards about to run dry up in Madison, and
he’s getting out before the program takes a turn for the
worst. This year’s club lacks speed and punch on offense,
and loses way too much throughout its stop unit to be
counted on to cover many games in ’05.
5) OKLAHOMA (12-1; 4-8 ATS) O:5 D:4
If you’ve watched or read any of the pre-season published
magazines or reports, you’ll find most of the prognosticators
lining up reason after reason why the Sooners won’t
resemble the teams of the last few seasons. If 2004 is a
predictor, the Sooners will have to fight tooth and nail
just to beat its tougher opponents SU let alone by two TDs
to make their backers happy. The offense will simply rely
on the legs of RB Peterson, and he doesn’t have the fine
front wall in front of him that he had a short year ago.
The defense comes in very green, and will have problems
against some of the potent offenses the Big 12 has to
offer. They’ll still smear the cupcakes on their schedule,
but they’ll by no means do the same to the stiffer competition.
6) LOUISVILLE (11-1; 10-1 ATS) O:6 D:5
HC Petrino’s Cards were the toast of the 2004 CFB season
as they went an incredible 10-1 against the number. The
only game they didn’t manage to cover in the regular season
was against conference rival Memphis whom they beat in a
shoot-out, 56-49. Their offense was incredible a year ago
and very deep. This will still be an electric group in
2005 but it’s not as deep nor experienced, and it will
be nearly impossible for them to match 2004’s outstanding
numbers. Look for the Cards to be eating a ton of chalk
in 2005 as the Big East is woeful this year, but I
don’t believe they have the firepower, nor defense, to
cover the lofty numbers.
7) PITT (8-4; 6-4 ATS) O:9 D:7
This choice might surprise a few people, but hear me
out first before you already have me sent off to the
Looney bin. Pitt is a loaded squad in 2005 with impact
players on both sides of the ball. That being said, they
couldn’t have made a worse hire than Dave Wannstedt to
replace Walt Harris who bolted for the sun in Cali. His
schemes and theories on how to play this game just don’t
mesh well with what the Panthers have stored in the
cupboard. Pitt’s offense has mainly relied on its passing
game for a very long time now, and its rushing attack
was nearly non-existent the past two year’s attaining
98 & 118 YPG respectively. HC Wannstedt loves to smash
the ball down his opponents’ throats, and I just don’t
see it happening with the lack of a game breaker in
the backfield and a very green O-Line. Look for there
to be plenty opportunities to cash in against these
guys early.
8) UCONN (8-4; 4-6 ATS) O:5 D:6
With a very talented, and experienced club a year ago,
the Huskies only managed to go 4-6 against the Vegas
number but did close out the season with a dominating
win over Toledo in the Motor City Bowl. They owned one
of the most prolific offenses in the country the last
three year’s due in large part to their outstanding QB,
Dan Orlovsky. Now they have to replace their four-year
starter, and have a very green O-Line protecting the
new QB. UCONN does have a pair of solid RBs that will
be relied upon in every game but it won’t be enough.
They also have to deal with a very green back 7 on
defense that will keep all of its opponents in just
about every game. Look for the Huskies to struggle
with teams balanced on both sides of the ball.
9) TEXAS TECH (8-4; 5-6 ATS) O:5 D:8
The Red Raiders are getting tons of love in just about
every pre-season publication put out this year. I’m a
big fan of HC Mike Leach and the system he runs as
it’s proven to be pretty much unstoppable the last
four year’s, but this year’s club has a much different
feel to it. The talk in Lubbock is that they’ve
actually got a defense to go along with what’s proven
to be a potent offense year after year. I’m not buying
it, and in fact, I’m selling. This club took a step
back offensively a year ago with its new starting QB
and has to break in yet another Sr. QB this year.
The defense did chisel off 8 PPG off its DEF PPG
average from a year ago, but they still gave up a
whopping 26 PPG. Look for Tech to really have its
hands full against the stiffer competition this year,
and for mediocre squads with balanced attacks on both
sides of the ball to come within the point spread
more times than not.
10) CAL (10-2; 7-4 ATS) O:5 D:3
The Golden Bears had Berkeley up in arms only a
short year ago, as they were an unfortunate loss away
to the Trojans from possibly playing for the National
Championship. Their #4 ranking was the highest
achieved since 1953, but it looks to me like the
Bears might be a team to fade early as the fresh
faces get used to the schemes on both sides of the
ball. I’m not doubting HC Jeff Tedford one bit.
He’s done an amazing job with this program in
only a short three year’s. This team clearly
has the talent to compete in the Pac 10 this year
and will most likely be nasty come mid October, but
expect the Bears to have trouble covering the chalk early on.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 |
|
|
